Estimated global soy surplus from 2023-24 harvest “at risk” as recent floods in southern Brazil eroded crop yields and damaged supplies in storage, Morgan Stanley analyst Julia Rizzo said in a report.
- Brazil soybean supplies seen at 145 million tons, down from 150 million before the floods
- Stored soybean losses seen at ~2 million tons, with harvest losses at ~3 million tons
- Tighter supplies should help sustain soybean futures above $12 per bushel
- Domestic freight rates have risen due to a strain in truck capacity as well as a recent increase in the pace of sales by farmers
- Crop producers including SLC and Adecoagro stand to benefit from higher soybean prices
- Train operator Rumo seen gaining from higher freight rates