2024/25 U.S. soybean production is slightly (<1%) lowered to 119 [113–125] million tons, reflecting less than favorable summer weather outlooks across the central Soy Belt, despite recent progress in planting and improved soil moisture compared to recent weeks. Our current outlook puts planted area at 86.9 million acres, up 3.9% from last season, which is 0.4 million acres above the USDA’s March estimate of 86.5 million acres in its Prospective Plantings report (28 March). The next USDA survey-based estimate of acreage will be released in the 28 June Acreage report. A recently released Reuters Poll of Analysts (06 May) placed U.S. soybean production and yield at 4.44 [4.16–4.55] billion bushels and 51.9 [50.6–53.0] bushels per acre, respectively, slightly above our current median estimates, 4.37 billion bushels and 51.1 bushels per acre, respectively.
After acute conditions kept plantings slow by early May (and at times into the first few days of mid-May), relatively mild and moderate weather throughout most of the Midwest and Plains through last week allowed for a meaningful catch up in the core Soy Belt states. The latest Crop Progress report of the season (28 May) estimated national-level sowings at 68%, a whopping 16% jump from last week, now ahead of the five-year average of 63%, though still well behind last year’s 78%. Most key producing regions of the central/eastern Soy Belt, including the “I” states (i.e. Illinois, Iowa and Indiana), have seen a huge catch-up over the past two weeks, with virtually all crop regions now on or ahead of schedule. Unlike corn, soybean planting was never significantly delayed this season, despite consistently lagging behind last year’s near record pace.
The next 15 days should feature mix conditions for most major production areas of the Soy Belt, with widespread warmth and dryness to follow during the second/third week of the month after some lingering wet conditions wrap up early June. A recently released June outlook from Refinitiv Weather Research suggests the warmth will continue through the end of June, with few precipitation extremes. Beyond June, updated June-August weather outlooks with the latest soil moisture data point to a potential drought/unfavorable hot and dry pattern during the crop’s prime growth period, especially across the “I” states, calling for close attention.