2023/24 Argentina soybean production is slightly (<1%) lowered to 48.5 [47.2–50.1] million tons, as significant late season delays continue to drag the whole harvest season into late May/early June amid very cold conditions. Our current estimate puts planted area at 16.9 million hectares, slightly below 17.3 million hectares reported by both Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario. In May’s WASDE (10 May), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 50 million tons, unchanged from its previous update. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 50.5 and 50 million tons, respectively.
According to the latest crop progress report from the Ministry of Agriculture, as of 16 May, soy harvest was only 61% complete nationally, significantly behind last year’s pace of 72%. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires also reported a progress of 63.7%, well behind schedule. The recent crop damages from the stunt/spiroplasma disease by leafhoppers are mostly on corn, but soy farmers also remain cautious amid unfavorable late season conditions. Much drier weather is in the forecast, which should help fields dry out and enable harvest to catch up, but farmers are facing very cold temperatures (near-freezing conditions depending on the location), warranting close attention. Most core producing areas of the central Pampas are likely to continue to see cold weather at least through the end of the month, which could play as another significant adverse factor for late season activities