Some sectors in Argentina (the biggest global exporter of soybean meal and soybean oil) are on a strike, which resulted in the fact that importers have been demanding byproducts from Brazil, the second largest supplier of these products in the world. As a result, domestic consumers have been competing with international players, boosting export premiums and prices in Brazil.
Soy oil values increased significantly (+4.3%) from May 9-16, at BRL 5,140.35 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on May 16. As for soybean meal, on the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea in Brazil, prices upped 3.1% in the same comparison.
The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) upped 0.7% from May 9-16, closing at BRL 134.99 per 60-kg bag on May 16. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) increased 0.5%, to close at BRL 129.95 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean prices rose 0.5% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers), but decreased only 0.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).
SUPPLY AND DEMAND – The USDA released a report in May 10 indicating that the global soybean output is likely to change from 396.9 million tons in 2023/24 to the new record of 422.2 million tons in the 2024/25 season.
Conab estimated that the production may total 147.68 million tons in the 2023/24 crop. It is worth mentioning that new adjustments may occur due to floods in Rio Grande do Sul. Brazil had harvested 95.6% of the 2023/24 area up to May 12.