Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 13.48 Million Tns In April Versus 13.74 Million Tns Forecast In Previous Week

Beneficial harvest weather raises India wheat production by 1% to 111.8 [107.0-115.0] million tons as the harvest season is near completion. Over the past 2 weeks, beneficial dry weather has persisted across major producing wheat regions in India. According to LSEG’s latest weather forecast, near normal temperatures and precipitation levels favorable for harvesting activities are expected to continue across the major wheat producing regions in India for the next 10 days.

Our production estimate is fractionally below the India Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare’s (MOAFW) estimate of 112.0 million tons. Vegetation densities (NDVI) derived from satellite imagery have consistently remained at or near record highs throughout the entire growing season across the primary wheat-producing states, including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, and Rajasthan. This is indicative of good to excellent crop conditions, setting our median yield estimate at 3.49 tons per harvested hectare.

Rabobank sees Brazil’s grain ports near limit-

The volume of Brazilian exports of soybeans and corn is expected to exceed the capacity of the country’s ports by 2027, Rabobank said in the report “Can Brazil’s infrastructure handle booming G&O production?”

Currently, the shipping capacity of Brazilian ports is 178 million tonnes. However, according to the bank, the investments planned for the next two years should add only 15 million tonnes to the capacity of the port terminals.

For the Dutch bank, this expansion will be insufficient to account for Brazil’s increasing soybean and corn supply. Rabobank calculates that the soybean area in the country will grow 3.5% per year in the 2023-2030 period. With this, the bank projects, oilseed production will rise from 159 million to 206 million by the end of the decade.

In the case of corn, the harvest will rise from 123 million tonnes to 180 million tonnes by the 2029/30 harvest, Rabobank estimates. The expansion of off-season corn harvest will drive the increase in grain production.

With the growth of the grain harvest and the limitations of the port infrastructure, the country will have to invest in increasing the processing capacity of corn and soybeans, the bank said. Brazil may not be able to export all the growing production of grains and oilseeds due to the lack of investment in infrastructure and restrictions such as the new anti-deforestation law of the European Union, Rabobank said in the report.

The Dutch bank estimates that one of the consequences of the low investment in logistics structure, in a scenario of increased domestic grain production, will be the continuous increase in freight costs. The report also says that more and more resources for investment in storage will come out of the pockets of producers. Historically, industrial companies and cooperatives have concentrated their investments in grain warehouses in the country.