European market
Grain prices in Europe are starting the week on a firm note. Wheat is finding support in this spring’s uncertain weather conditions, which are marked both by excess moisture in the northern half of Europe and by early drying in southern Europe and the Black Sea basin. Corn is also fairly firm, amid slower imports into the European Union in recent weeks.
Rapeseed, on the other hand, is suffering from profit-taking, as is palm oil, which is correcting the excesses of last week’s rise in Kuala Lumpur.
Yesterday, the Belgian Presidency of the European Union and representatives of the European Parliament reached a provisional agreement to renew the suspension of customs duties and quotas on imports of agricultural products from Ukraine until 5 June 2025. The agreement provides for the introduction of “emergency brakes” on poultry, eggs, sugar, oats, groats, corn and honey, based on average imports over the second half of 2021, 2022 and 2023. Imports of wheat and barley would not benefit from this “emergency brake” mechanism, but would be subject to increased surveillance. The agreement has been approved by the representatives of the Member States and still has to be approved by Parliament.
Now that the harvest has begun in India, opinions differ on the country’s production levels. This is a highly sensitive subject, given the historically low level of carryover stocks from the 2 previous campaigns.
American market
Prices closed mixed last night in Chicago. The market is still taking a wait-and-see attitude, both in view of the weather over the next few weeks, which will be crucial for winter wheat and spring sowings, and ahead of the publication of the USDA’s next monthly WASDE report on Thursday 15 April.
Funds were not very active yesterday, with slight selling in soybeans and wheat and buying in corn.
As it does every Monday evening from now on, the USDA publishes its Crop Progress at national level. It shows that, as last week, 56% of winter wheat is judged to be in “good to excellent” condition, compared with 27% last year and the highest for 4 years. Only 3% of corn has been sown, compared with an expected 4%.