There has been a lot of speculation in Brazil if the yields of the later maturing soybeans would be able to compensate for the low yields from the early maturing soybeans. We are now close to having the final yields from several locations in Mato Grosso and Parana, which are Brazil’s two largest soybean producing states, and it appears that the later maturing soybeans will not be able to fully compensate for lower yields from the early maturing soybeans.
Generally, the final yields are running approximately 10 bu/ac below what had been expected initially. If the initial yield expectation had been in the mid-50s bu/ac range, yields are coming in mid or upper 40s bu/ac, or 10% to 20% below expectations, depending on location.
Therefore, the 2023/24 Brazil soybean estimate was lowered 2.0 million tons this week to 145.0 million. If the current yield trend continues going forward, the Brazilian soybean estimate could move lower.
Rainfall last week favored south central and southern Brazil with the heaviest amounts in western Sao Paulo and western Rio Grande do Sul. The rain helped ease dryness in south central areas. The rainfall this week will be more focused on northern Brazil.
On an official mission to the U.S. last week, the Secretary of Agricultural Policy at the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Neri Geller, indicated that he felt that the 2023/24 Brazilian soybean production would fall below 145.0 million tons.
The 2023/24 soybeans in Brazil were 32% harvested as of late last week compared to 25% last year and 25.8% average according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 9% for the week. The harvest pace is being pushed along by Mato Grosso and Parana.