Brazilian farmers are expected to reap 147.685 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2023/2024 cycle, 1.16 million tons more than forecast in April, as national crop agency Conab revised the size of the area planted with the oilseed on Tuesday.
The upward revision may surprise some, as Brazil’s second largest soy producing state, Rio Grande do Sul, continues to face excess rains and flooding, disrupting farmers before they can finish harvesting all their soybean fields.
Conab did lower Rio Grande do Sul’s average yield forecast, to 3,168 kg per hectare from 3,280 kg per hectare last month, noting this was still “normal” but could change if “current climate adversities persist.”
In the May report, Conab increased the size of the area planted with soybeans countrywide by almost 500,000 hectares, to 45.73 million hectares (113 million acres), which could help offset yield and output losses in Rio Grande do Sul.
Conab said in Brazil’s southernmost state, yields and production will still be significantly higher than last year, when local farmers faced drought.
Still, Conab cut Brazil’s average soybean yield estimate to 3,229 kg per hectare, down 7.9% from the previous season, citing the already noticeable impact of excess rains in the south of the country, which is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of soybeans.
In the same report, Conab said the outlook for corn production in Brazil improved from a month ago.
Conab said nationally, the nation will produce 111.636 million tons of corn, more than the 110.964 million tons estimated in April but significantly lower than last year’s 131.893 million tons because farmers reduced the overall area planted with corn this season.
Brazil’s second-corn output, which represents a large chunk of national production and is sowed after soybeans are harvested in the same areas, will total 86.155 million tons, 538,000 tons more than expected last month, Conab said.