Soybeans in Brazil were 85% harvested as of late last week compared to 86% last year and 87.8% average according to Patria AgroNegocios. This represents an advance of 5.8% for the week. The areas remaining to be harvested are Rio Grande do Sul and northeastern Brazil.
In their April Crop Reports, Conab lowered the 2023/24 Brazil soybean estimate by 0.3 million tons to 146.5 million (see later article) while the USDA left the Brazil soybean estimate unchanged at 155.0 million tons. Conab is using a soybean acreage of 45.23 million hectares while the USDA is using a soybean acreage of 45.9 million hectares. The difference is 670,000 hectares or 1.65 million acres. Conab is estimating the nationwide soybean yield at 48.2 bu/ac, while the USDA is estimating the yield at 50.3 bu/ac.
How these differences get resolved in the months ahead remains to be seen. If the USDA is correct, then my production estimate is much too low. If Conab is correct, then my estimate is probably a little too low. Either way, I decided to increase my estimate 2.0 million tons this week to 147.0 million. The main reason for the increase is that the soybean crop in Rio Grande do Sul is ending up much better than anticipated given that the crop was planted very late due to saturated conditions.
Having said that, there is currently a lot of rain in Rio Grande do Sul with localized flooding especially in the western part of the state. Last week, farmers were rushing to harvest as much of their soybeans as possible before the rain moved in, so this needs to be watched.