OILSEEDS: The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 includes lower imports, residual, and exports, and higher ending stocks. Soybean trade is reduced on
pace to date and expectations for future shipments. With the trade changes and slightly lower residual, soybean ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively.
Global 2023/24 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, exports, crush, and nearly unchanged ending stocks. Soybean production is lowered mainly for South Africa on drought conditions during the season, which negatively impacted yield potential. Partly offsetting is higher production for Paraguay, up 0.2 million tons to 10.5 million.
Global soybean exports are lowered 0.5 million tons to 173.1 million mainly on lower exports for the United States and South Africa partly offset by higher shipments for Paraguay. Imports are lowered for Indonesia, Russia, Algeria, and the United States, but raised for the EU. Global soybean ending stocks are nearly unchanged with higher stocks for the United States offset by lower stocks for Canada, Iran, and Russia.
