L2B Futures March 26, according to foreign media reports, the March supply and demand report released by consulting firm Safras & Mercado showed that Brazilian soybean exports are expected to decrease, but soybean crushing is expected to increase to meet the strong growth in demand for soybean oil in the biodiesel industry. . As far as manufactured products are concerned, domestic consumption of Brazilian soybean meal and soybean oil is expected to increase in 2024, while exports are expected to decline. Brazilian soybean exports will decline by 7.7% year-on-year, while domestic crushing will increase by 1% year-on-year.
1. In terms of soybeans, Brazil’s soybean production in 2023/24 is 148.601 million tons, 0.32% lower than the 149.076 million tons forecast on February 9, and 9.23 million tons or 5.85% lower than the previous year’s record production of 157.83 million tons.
Brazil’s soybean exports in 2024 are expected to be 94 million tons, consistent with last month’s forecast, a 7.7% decrease from the previous year’s 101.86 million tons.
Soybean crush in 2024 is expected to be 54.3 million tons, consistent with the February forecast and up 1% from 53.74 million tons in 2023.
Brazil’s soybean imports are expected to be 650,000 tons in 2024, up from 181,000 tons in 2023.
The total soybean supply in 2024 is expected to be 154.317 million tons, a 6% decrease from the previous year.
The total demand for Brazilian soybeans in 2024 will be 151.3 million tons, a decrease of 5% from the previous year.
The ending soybean inventory in 2024 is expected to be 3.017 million tons, a 40% decrease from the previous year’s 5.066 million tons.
2. In terms of soybean meal, domestic consumption has increased and exports are expected to decline. Brazil’s soybean meal production is expected to be 41.68 million tons in 2024, an increase of 1% from 2023. Exports are expected to fall by 7% to 21 million tons, and domestic consumption is expected to be 18.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Ending stocks are expected to increase by 81% to 4.88 million tons.
3. As for soybean oil, domestic consumption has increased while exports have declined. Brazilian soybean oil production in 2024 is expected to be 10.96 million tons, basically the same as the previous year; exports are expected to be 1.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36%, which reflects the growth of domestic demand; domestic consumption is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year to 9.5 million tons; among which the soybean oil consumption in the biodiesel industry is expected to increase by 18% year-on-year to 5.2 million tons. Ending inventory is expected to be 535,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4%.