The new estimate for Brazil’s soybean production is down 5% from the 154.6 million mt record crop harvested in 2022/23 and a 4.5% decline from the initial 162 million mt forecast.
However, it remains the second-biggest crop in history.
The decline reflects low rainfall and above-average temperatures all over producing regions, “but in late sowing areas, the rain has been favorable to crop development,” Conab said.
The planted area estimates are now at 45.2 million ha, an 0.2% gain from February’s 45 million ha forecast and 2.5% above the 44.1 million ha from 2022/23.
Yield estimates were reduced to 3,251 kilos/ha, 1.9% down from the previous 3,314 kilos/ha projection, and a 7.3% drop on the year.
Brazil’s 2024 soybean export estimates were reduced to 92.3 million mt from last month’s 94.1 million mt forecast, 9.3% below the record 101.8 million mt sent abroad in 2023.
Soybean crushing estimates were trimmed by 829,000 mt to 52.5 million mt versus the previous 53.3 million mt projection, slightly above the 52.1 million mt soybean crush from 2023.
According to Conab, that reflects the lower availability of soybeans but is mostly due to an increase in Argentina’s crop, which will hinder Brazilian products exports.
Conab also reduced Brazil’s soymeal production forecast to 40.2 million mt from the previous report’s 41 million mt estimate.
The agency increased its 2023 soymeal output to 40.75 from 40.6 million mt seen in February’s report.
Brazilian soymeal exports forecast was cut to 20 million mt from last month’s 21.5 million mt forecasts, while Conab also adjusted lower its 2023 figure to 22.4 from the previous 22.6 million mt.
Domestic demand was pegged at 18 million mt in 2024, slightly above the 17.8 million mt seen in 2023.
Conab trimmed its 2024 soyoil output estimates to 10.6 million mt from last month’s 10.7 million mt projection.
In 2023, Brazil’s production reached 10.5 million mt.
Soyoil 2024 export estimates were also reduced to 1.4 million mt from February’s 1.5 million mt projection, while in 2023 shipments totaled 2.3 million mt.
Domestic demand was projected at 9.2 million mt in 2024 versus last year’s 8.4 million mt.